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How Trump's Endorsement and the Pro-Trump Agenda Help Republicans Win GOP Primaries_我的网站

A |     Sophie 编译 新西兰经济在9月季度大幅下滑。    "It was a good night for the MAGA crew," admitted the left-leaning media website Vox on June 29: Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who enthusiastically supports Trump, fended off his more-moderate primary challengers; Gov. Kevin Stitt, who was endorsed by the former president in March, easily won the nomination in Oklahoma; Trump-endorsed Republicans Sen. Darren Bailey and Rep. Mary Miller came out on top in Illinois, to name but a few. Tuesday primaries were a reversal from last week, when the two congressional candidates supported by the former president lost their runoffs in Georgia.,"The America First movement is still in a pull position in Republican primaries," says Rory McShane, a Republican political consultant and strategist based in Texas. "Faithful Republican voters don't want a return to the unprincipled, go-along-to-get-along leadership of decades past.",According to McShane, the so-called "Trump camp" in the Republican Party is "extremely strong." Furthermore, "even candidates running against Trump-endorsed candidates are focusing their messaging on their similarities to President Trump," in order to command support among Republican voters, he remarks.,For their part, Democrats launched an unprecedented effort to interfere in GOP nominating contests across the country to fund "extreme right" candidates and attacking more moderate Republican hopefuls, according to Politico. Democratic-affiliated entities have spent millions on political ad contracts as the Dems believe that their candidates will easily defeat GOP MAGA nominees in the midterms. However, it appears that they have miscalculated, according to Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.,"Democrats tried to influence some races to get more conservative candidates as opponents," he says. "They weren't very successful in that strategy. Plus, there's always the possibility that the more conservative candidate could end up winning in the general election.",Britt's Alabama Primary Victory: Why a Trump Endorsement is a Tricky Thing23 June, 16:39 GMT,MAGA Movement Alive, GOP Has Plenty Trump Cards,Despite the Dems smearing of the MAGA camp especially following the controversial Capitol Hill incident of January 6, 2020, the pro-Trump movement is going on, according to the observers.,"The MAGA movement is alive and well, steamrolling traditional milquetoast Republicans," says McShane. "President Trump is undoubtedly the leader of the movement, but it exists outside of him also.",Still, one should not see Trump's endorsement as a magic spell, since some candidates backed by the former president won and some did not, according to Hagle.,"The dynamics of a particular set of candidates and of the issues in an area make a difference," the political scientist explains. "Whether a candidate actively supports Trump is likely secondary to how he or she handles the issues. In the post-Trump era many voters want someone who is willing to fight for the issues that are important to them. Republicans, in particular, have often been disappointed in the officeholders who don't seem to fight on the important issues. That's one reason why Trump did so well even though some were turned off by his personal style.",However, there has also been the case where Mehmet Oz, a GOP candidate for Pennsylvania, heavily capitalized on Trump's endorsement but dropped the president's brand immediately after winning the primaries. Observers warn that this may happen again, casting doubt on Alabama GOP winner Katie Britt's loyalty to the ex-president, in particular.,In general, the GOP has a lot of trump cards in these midterms, starting with Joe Biden's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and ending with skyrocketing inflation and soaring food and energy prices, which the majority of the US voters blame on the president despite the latter's attempt to shift the responsibility on his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.,"The issues for this election are the usual 'kitchen table' issues such as jobs, the economy, and healthcare," says Hagle. "Inflation is a particular problem and we see other issues where Republicans find it easy to criticize Democrats and the Biden administration (e.g., baby formula shortage, other supply issues, immigration, rising crime).",© SputnikDonald Trump's 'Save America' campaign-style rally in Sarasota, Florida, 3 June, 2021Donald Trump's 'Save America' campaign-style rally in Sarasota, Florida, 3 June, 2021© Sputnik,Will Trump Run Again in 2024?,It's still unclear, however, whether Donald Trump himself will toss his hat into the ring in 2024.,Even though President Trump's support among Republicans isn't going anywhere, McShane doesn't think that the former president wants to seek a new bid.,"I don't think it is entirely clear at this point how strong Trump might be going forward," says Hagle. "One thing we often see in those thinking about a presidential run is greater participation in the preceding midterm elections. We've seen Trump be fairly active in the primaries. We'll see if he continues to be active in the midterms. We'll also see the extent to which candidates want him to participate on their behalf.",Given the problems facing the Biden administration, Trump and his supporters may believe that Donald has a good chance of defeating Joe or any other Democratic contender in 2024. At the same time, "given how successful the left was in demonizing him, many Republicans might prefer someone who is as strong as Trump on the issues but doesn't have the same personal style," according to the political scientist.,"This is why Governor DeSantis is getting a lot of attention," he stresses, referring to the 46th governor of Florida endorsed by Trump back in 2018.,Nevertheless, a new poll by Morning Consult/Politico released on 29 June clearly indicated that Trump has maintained his position among GOP voters, with the majority saying they'd vote for him in a 2024 Republican presidential primary. "Even though support for DeSantis appears to be on the rise, Trump continues to hold a commanding lead over the governor's 22%," Newsweek remarked on Wednesday.。         与6月季度相比，国内生产总值（GDP）萎缩0.3%，同比下降0.6%。         Advertise with us          这一数据与经济学家的普遍预测大相径庭。         新西兰统计局国民账户行业和生产高级经理Ruvani Ratnayake今天表示：“本季度所有的商品生产行业都出现了下滑，制造业下滑首当其冲。

B | ”          制造业的下滑是由石油、化工、塑料和橡胶制造业以及食品和饮料制造业推动的。         “运输、邮政和仓储业也出现下滑，这主要是由于货运物流的下滑，本季度出口的货物减少了。”          尽管GDP整体下降，但本季度11个服务行业中有8个出现增长。

C | 增长最强劲的是医疗保健和社会援助，以及租赁、招聘和房地产服务行业。         在此之前，（经修正的）2023年6月当季GDP增长0.5%。与截至2022年9月的一年相比，截至2023年9月的一年里，GDP增长了1.3%。                   此前预测          经济学家此前预计，最新的新西兰统计局数据将显示经济仍在增长——尽管增长幅度较小。         但他们警告说，对许多人来说，情况可能感觉像是陷入了衰退。

D | 一旦考虑到新西兰强劲的人口增长（截至9月的一年中，净移民增加了12.8万人），我们很可能会看到人均经济在萎缩。         Kiwibank之前预计，新西兰本季度GDP增幅仅为0.2%。

E |          其首席经济学家Jarrod Kerr指出，无论我们是否在技术上陷入衰退，未来几个月将非常低迷。         “对我们来说，这与我们最初估计的萎缩0.2%相比，方向有所改变。

F | 但我们要明确一点：这与经济比预期更强劲无关，而是与创纪录的净移民有关。

G | ”          “仅今年一年，我们就净输入了12万移民，使得我们的人口在截至2023年9月的一年中增长了2.7%。”          “我们庞大的人口支持了更高的产出和需求。但如果不考虑这一点，我们很可能已经进入了今年的第二次衰退的第一个季度。”          ANZ的Miles Workman也表达了类似的看法。ANZ预计本季度经济将增长0.3%，与新西兰储备银行的最新预测相符。         Workman指出，如果我们看一下人均GDP，情况就大不相同了。         “人口增长0.6%（环比）意味着，我们对整体GDP增长0.3%的预期显示人均GDP有可能出现萎缩。”          “展望未来，尽管整体上看经济可能避免了另一次技术性衰退，但这些数据的人均水平就不那么妙了。”          Workman说，如果不考虑移民激增，经济的潜在状况将非常疲软。         “虽然移民使公司更容易找到他们需要的工人，但新西兰储备银行的评估是，净移民对通货膨胀是一个小幅正面影响，这表明我们得到的更多是由移民推动的增长。也许储备银行需要在人均水平上施加更大的痛苦，无论是通过更多的加息还是只是更长时间地保持利率不变。

H | ”          ASB的经济学家预计，本季度经济将增长0.2%，但他们也指出，我们正面临“人均衰退”。         相关阅读：          周四将公布最新GDP数据，专家预计新西兰经济将出现长期缓慢增长          新西兰经济目前究竟如何？有没有进入衰退？          新西兰经济增长背后的“坏消息”          新西兰GDP上季度增长0.9%！但经济增长真的健康吗？有人说出了真相          新西兰最新GDP数据公布 6月季度增长0.9%          好消息：新西兰经济没有衰退！坏消息：OCR会继续涨，贷款利率还要升！          经济学家预测，新西兰GDP将开始增长，但真的走出了衰退吗？          注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。         chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有          (责编：Sophie)          相关内容                今天清晨，奥克兰北岸一栋在建的三层楼房被可疑的大火烧毁           上千人集会、4.5万人联名，抗议新西兰政府废除这项法案           一名19岁少年用打印机和白纸制造假钞，承认了十几项罪名，但不用坐牢           巴以冲突：美国驻奥克兰领事馆又被泼红油漆           最新民调：Luxon支持率下滑，优先党和毛利党成最大赢家           Winston Peters再次担任代总理 Luxon前往澳洲参加女儿毕业典礼           刚刚！政府宣布圣诞节前废除公平薪酬协议，全面恢复90天试用期           奥克兰市长大怒：招聘冻结期间还是花了纳税人740万纽币用于招人。

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